Job Loss Down, but Not Yet In Syracuse

Delayed Recession Means Delayed Recovery

by Beth Jones

8-11-09

SYRACUSE, N.Y.- Last month saw the lowest number of job losses in a year. With 247,000 jobs gone in July its even a huge contrast from what we just saw in June, when almost 450,000 were eliminated. Unemployment even dropped to 9.4% last month from 9.5% in June.

Behind the Curve

But you won't see this kind of upswing in the Syracuse area for a few more months. The reason? According to Karen Knapik-Scalzo, an associate economist for the New York State Department of Labor, the recession hit the country in December 2007, but it didn't really start to affect the Syracuse area until much later. So while the upswing may be starting for the nation overall, Syracuse is still in a downward slide.

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When they say the Syracuse area, according to Kanpick-Scalzo, they are referring to the Syracuse MSA, or metropolitan statistical area. This includes three counties:

• Onondaga
• Madison
• Oswego

Why the Lag?

This lag between when the nation fell into recession and when the Syracuse area did happens for a couple reasons. For one, industry in Syracuse is more diversified. So, the economy here is not highly dependant on one or two industries. Namely, the financial industry here is smaller and did not take as big a hit. Another big factor is the area housing market, which also fared better than the nation.

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As a result, it took longer for the recession to hit here. But it did eventually hit. And because of the later onset, that means we won't see the same upturn that the nation as whole is reporting, not for another few months at least.

On the Bright Side On the other hand, says Knapik-Scalzo, the Syracuse area is faring better overall. Unemployment percentages have been consistently below the national average. Job loss numbers are below the national pace and even the state pace, she says. So even though things are still technically on the decline, overall Syracuse has been fairing better than much of the rest of the U.S. There's even some job GROWTH in the health and education sector, says Knapik-Scalzo.

Better Late Than Never So, basically the message is simple: hang in there. We started the recession later than the nation, so it's logical that we wold see a later upswing than the nation. But, says Knapik-Scalzo, if the nation is seeing one, we will too...just a little later.